American University vs Cincinnati

6:00
PM

American University☆Eagles

5379

Final, model had 65-78

LineCincinnati −25.5O/U153.5Under ✓

Cincinnati☆Bearcats

Strong pickW

Picked Cincinnati

Total 143 proj, 132 actual

Correct. The model had Cincinnati; Cincinnati won 79-53.

• Cincinnati rates 52nd of 366 teams, American University 279th: a top-75 team against a lower-half team.
• The edge is mostly Cincinnati’s defense (14th nationally) against American University’s offense (226th).
• Home court adds 2.7 points for Cincinnati.
• The books have Cincinnati by 25.5, more than the model’s gap supports, so the spread value is on American University +25.5.
• Projected total 143 vs an over/under of 153.5: a 10-point gap, the Under is the play.
• Early-season note: about 95% of these numbers are still last season’s.

Every pick is locked before tip-off and graded from the final score. How the model works.