App State vs Merrimack

5:00
AMNeutral

App State☆Mountaineers

6349

Final, model had 71-66

LineMerrimack −3O/U132.5

Merrimack☆Warriors

Upset pickW

Picked App State

Total 136 proj, 112 actual

Correct. The model had App State; App State won 63-49.

• App State rates 197th of 366 teams, Merrimack 314th: a lower-half team against one of the weakest teams in Division I.
• The edge is mostly App State’s defense (41st nationally) against Merrimack’s offense (309th).
• Neutral site: no home-court edge either way.
• The books favor Merrimack by 3. The model disagrees and takes App State outright, which also means App State +3 on the spread.
• Projected total 136 vs 132.5: leans Over.
• Early-season note: about 95% of these numbers are still last season’s.

Every pick is locked before tip-off and graded from the final score. How the model works.