5:30
PM
PM
ArmyBlack Knights
5084
Final, model had 59-88
LineDuke −44.5O/U157.5Under ✓
DukeBlue Devils
Strong pickW
Correct. The model had Duke; Duke won 84-50.
Why the model had Duke
- Duke rates 2nd of 366 teams, Army 340th: a top-25 team against one of the weakest teams in Division I.
- The edge is mostly Duke’s offense (7th nationally) against Army’s defense (303rd).
- Duke has played the 16th-toughest schedule, so its numbers are earned.
- Home court adds 2.7 points for Duke.
- The books have Duke by 44.5, right about where the model is. No spread edge.
- Projected total 147 vs an over/under of 157.5: a 10-point gap, the Under is the play.
- Early-season note: about 95% of these numbers are still last season’s.
Every pick is locked before tip-off and graded from the final score. How the model works.