Ball State vs Georgia Southern

6:00
PM

Ball State☆Cardinals

5567

Final, model had 73-76

LineBall State −2O/U160Under ✓

Georgia Southern☆Eagles

Upset pickW

Picked Georgia Southern

Total 149 proj, 122 actual

Correct. The model had Georgia Southern; Georgia Southern won 67-55.

• Georgia Southern rates 300th of 366 teams, Ball State 313th: one of the weakest teams in Division I against one of the weakest teams in Division I.
• The edge is mostly Georgia Southern’s offense (220th nationally) against Ball State’s defense (170th).
• Home court adds 2.7 points for Georgia Southern.
• The books favor Ball State by 2. The model disagrees and takes Georgia Southern outright, which also means Georgia Southern +2 on the spread.
• Projected total 149 vs an over/under of 160: a 11-point gap, the Under is the play.
• Early-season note: about 95% of these numbers are still last season’s.

Every pick is locked before tip-off and graded from the final score. How the model works.