Bowling Green vs Georgia State

5:00
PM

Bowling Green☆Falcons

7673

Final, model had 78-71

LineGeorgia State −3.5O/U158

Georgia State☆Panthers

Upset pickW

Picked Bowling Green

Total 149 proj, 149 actual

Correct. The model had Bowling Green; Bowling Green won 76-73.

• Bowling Green rates 96th of 366 teams, Georgia State 306th: an upper-half team against one of the weakest teams in Division I.
• The edge is mostly Bowling Green’s offense (115th nationally) against Georgia State’s defense (188th).
• Bowling Green is picked on the road despite Georgia State’s 2.7-point home-court edge.
• The books favor Georgia State by 3.5. The model disagrees and takes Bowling Green outright, which also means Bowling Green +3.5 on the spread.
• Projected total 149 vs 158: leans Under.
• Early-season note: about 95% of these numbers are still last season’s.

Every pick is locked before tip-off and graded from the final score. How the model works.