Charlotte vs Indiana State

6:00
PM

Charlotte☆49ers

7870

Final, model had 73-75

LineCharlotte −5O/U152.5

Indiana State☆Sycamores

Upset pickL

Picked Indiana State

Total 148 proj, 148 actual

Missed. The model had Indiana State; Charlotte won 78-70.

• Indiana State rates 224th of 366 teams, Charlotte 205th: a lower-half team against a lower-half team.
• The edge is mostly Indiana State’s defense (221st nationally) against Charlotte’s offense (133rd).
• Home court adds 2.7 points for Indiana State.
• The books favor Charlotte by 5. The model disagrees and takes Indiana State outright, which also means Indiana State +5 on the spread.
• Projected total 148 vs 152.5: leans Under.
• Early-season note: about 95% of these numbers are still last season’s.

Every pick is locked before tip-off and graded from the final score. How the model works.