Florida Gulf Coast vs UCF

6:00
PM

Florida Gulf Coast☆Eagles

9596

Final, model had 72-84

LineUCF −22.5O/U153.5

UCF☆Knights

Strong pickW

Picked UCF

Total 156 proj, 191 actual

Correct. The model had UCF; UCF won 96-95.

• UCF rates 51st of 366 teams, Florida Gulf Coast 210th: a top-75 team against a lower-half team.
• The two are close on both ends: offense 59th vs 112th, defense 287th vs 173rd.
• UCF has played the 22nd-toughest schedule, so its numbers are earned.
• Home court adds 2.7 points for UCF.
• The books have UCF by 22.5, right about where the model is. No spread edge.
• Projected total 156, in line with the 153.5 over/under.
• Early-season note: about 95% of these numbers are still last season’s.

Every pick is locked before tip-off and graded from the final score. How the model works.