8:00
PM
PM
Gardner-WebbRunnin' Bulldogs
4686
Final, model had 59-88
LineUConn −40
UConnHuskies
Strong pickW
Correct. The model had UConn; UConn won 86-46.
Why the model had UConn
- UConn rates 11th of 366 teams, Gardner-Webb 363rd: a top-25 team against one of the weakest teams in Division I.
- The edge is mostly UConn’s offense (45th nationally) against Gardner-Webb’s defense (364th).
- UConn has played the 19th-toughest schedule, so its numbers are earned.
- Home court adds 2.7 points for UConn.
- The books have UConn by 40; the model likes UConn by more than that, so the spread value is on UConn −40.
- Projected total: 148 points.
- Early-season note: about 95% of these numbers are still last season’s.
Every pick is locked before tip-off and graded from the final score. How the model works.