Gonzaga vs Purdue

6:30
PMNeutral

Gonzaga☆Bulldogs

7872

Final, model had 75-76

LineGonzaga −5.5O/U154

Purdue☆Boilermakers

Upset pickL

Picked Purdue

Total 151 proj, 150 actual

Missed. The model had Purdue; Gonzaga won 78-72.

• Purdue rates 10th of 366 teams, Gonzaga 12th: a top-25 team against a top-25 team.
• The two are close on both ends: offense 3rd vs 11th, defense 192nd vs 3rd.
• Purdue has played the 3rd-toughest schedule, so its numbers are earned.
• Neutral site: no home-court edge either way.
• The books favor Gonzaga by 5.5. The model disagrees and takes Purdue outright, which also means Purdue +5.5 on the spread.
• Projected total 151, in line with the 154 over/under.
• Early-season note: about 95% of these numbers are still last season’s.

Every pick is locked before tip-off and graded from the final score. How the model works.