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Grambling vs Northern Illinois

Monday, November 2, 2026, 2:00 AM Central · neutral site. Final score and how the model did.

2:00
AMNeutral

GramblingTigers

8987

Final, model had 73-71

LineNIU −8.5O/U139.5

Northern IllinoisHuskies

Upset pickW

Picked Grambling

Total 144 proj, 176 actual

Correct. The model had Grambling; Grambling won 89-87.

Why the model had Grambling

Grambling rates 304th of 366 teams, Northern Illinois 326th: one of the weakest teams in Division I against one of the weakest teams in Division I.
The edge is mostly Grambling’s defense (113th nationally) against Northern Illinois’s offense (341st).
Grambling’s numbers came against the 15th-easiest schedule, so they are discounted.
Neutral site: no home-court edge either way.
The books favor Northern Illinois by 8.5. The model disagrees and takes Grambling outright, which also means Grambling +8.5 on the spread.
Projected total 144 vs 139.5: leans Over.
Early-season note: about 95% of these numbers are still last season’s.

Every pick is locked before tip-off and graded from the final score. How the model works.