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HowardBison
6272
Final, model had 70-80
LineYale −7.5O/U153.5
YaleBulldogs
W
Correct. The model had Yale; Yale won 72-62.
Why the model had Yale
- Yale rates 63rd of 366 teams, Howard 221st: a top-75 team against a lower-half team.
- The edge is mostly Yale’s offense (12th nationally) against Howard’s defense (67th).
- Howard’s numbers came against the 9th-easiest schedule, so they are discounted.
- Home court adds 2.7 points for Yale.
- The books have Yale by 7.5; the model likes Yale by more than that, so the spread value is on Yale −7.5.
- Projected total 150 vs 153.5: leans Under.
- Early-season note: about 95% of these numbers are still last season’s.
Every pick is locked before tip-off and graded from the final score. How the model works.