Illinois State vs Saint Mary's

9:00
PM

Illinois State☆Redbirds

8590

Final, model had 66-77

LineSaint Mary's −6.5O/U148.5

Saint Mary's☆Gaels

Strong pickW

Picked Saint Mary's

Total 142 proj, 175 actual

Correct. The model had Saint Mary's; Saint Mary's won 90-85.

• Saint Mary's rates 17th of 366 teams, Illinois State 118th: a top-25 team against an upper-half team.
• The edge is mostly Saint Mary's’s offense (18th nationally) against Illinois State’s defense (84th).
• Home court adds 2.7 points for Saint Mary's.
• The books have Saint Mary's by 6.5; the model likes Saint Mary's by more than that, so the spread value is on Saint Mary's −6.5.
• Projected total 142 vs 148.5: leans Under.
• Early-season note: about 95% of these numbers are still last season’s.

Every pick is locked before tip-off and graded from the final score. How the model works.