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MaineBlack Bears
5683
Final, model had 64-86
LineProvidence −31.5O/U150.5
ProvidenceFriars
Strong pickW
Correct. The model had Providence; Providence won 83-56.
Why the model had Providence
- Providence rates 62nd of 366 teams, Maine 361st: a top-75 team against one of the weakest teams in Division I.
- The edge is mostly Providence’s offense (56th nationally) against Maine’s defense (199th).
- Maine’s numbers came against the 18th-easiest schedule, so they are discounted.
- Home court adds 2.7 points for Providence.
- The books have Providence by 31.5, right about where the model is. No spread edge.
- Projected total 150, in line with the 150.5 over/under.
- Early-season note: about 95% of these numbers are still last season’s.
Every pick is locked before tip-off and graded from the final score. How the model works.