Memphis vs Iowa State

6:00
PMNeutral

Memphis☆Tigers

8076

Final, model had 69-81

LineIowa State −15O/U156

Iowa State☆Cyclones

Strong pickL

Picked Iowa State

Total 150 proj, 156 actual

Missed. The model had Iowa State; Memphis won 80-76.

• Iowa State rates 14th of 366 teams, Memphis 141st: a top-25 team against an upper-half team.
• The edge is mostly Iowa State’s defense (37th nationally) against Memphis’s offense (205th).
• Iowa State has played the 37th-toughest schedule, so its numbers are earned.
• Neutral site: no home-court edge either way.
• The books have Iowa State by 15, right about where the model is. No spread edge.
• Projected total 150 vs 156: leans Under.
• Early-season note: about 95% of these numbers are still last season’s.

Every pick is locked before tip-off and graded from the final score. How the model works.