6:30
PM
PM
MercyhurstLakers
4378
Final, model had 68-76
LineMarquette −31.5O/U146.5
MarquetteGolden Eagles
W
Correct. The model had Marquette; Marquette won 78-43.
Why the model had Marquette
- Marquette rates 123rd of 366 teams, Mercyhurst 290th: an upper-half team against a lower-half team.
- The two are close on both ends: offense 274th vs 252nd, defense 258th vs 112th.
- Mercyhurst’s numbers came against the 10th-easiest schedule, so they are discounted.
- Home court adds 2.7 points for Marquette.
- The books have Marquette by 31.5, more than the model’s gap supports, so the spread value is on Mercyhurst +31.5.
- Projected total 144, in line with the 146.5 over/under.
- Early-season note: about 95% of these numbers are still last season’s.
Every pick is locked before tip-off and graded from the final score. How the model works.