Murray State vs Tennessee State

10:30
AMNeutral

Murray State☆Racers

9464

Final, model had 79-80

LineMurray State −10.5O/U165

Tennessee State☆Tigers

Upset pickL

Picked Tennessee State

Total 159 proj, 158 actual

Missed. The model had Tennessee State; Murray State won 94-64.

• Tennessee State rates 176th of 366 teams, Murray State 171st: an upper-half team against an upper-half team.
• The edge is mostly Tennessee State’s defense (126th nationally) against Murray State’s offense (73rd).
• Neutral site: no home-court edge either way.
• The books favor Murray State by 10.5. The model disagrees and takes Tennessee State outright, which also means Tennessee State +10.5 on the spread.
• Projected total 159 vs 165: leans Under.
• Early-season note: about 95% of these numbers are still last season’s.

Every pick is locked before tip-off and graded from the final score. How the model works.