NJIT vs Dayton

6:00
PM

NJIT☆Highlanders

5889

Final, model had 63-79

LineDayton −23.5O/U143.5

Dayton☆Flyers

Strong pickW

Picked Dayton

Total 142 proj, 147 actual

Correct. The model had Dayton; Dayton won 89-58.

• Dayton rates 81st of 366 teams, NJIT 344th: an upper-half team against one of the weakest teams in Division I.
• The edge is mostly Dayton’s offense (211th nationally) against NJIT’s defense (196th).
• NJIT’s numbers came against the 32nd-easiest schedule, so they are discounted.
• Home court adds 2.7 points for Dayton.
• The books have Dayton by 23.5, right about where the model is. No spread edge.
• Projected total 142, in line with the 143.5 over/under.
• Early-season note: about 95% of these numbers are still last season’s.

Every pick is locked before tip-off and graded from the final score. How the model works.