Northern Kentucky vs UTEP

1:00
PMNeutral

Northern Kentucky☆Norse

8476

Final, model had 77-74

LineUTEP −3O/U150.5

UTEP☆Miners

Upset pickW

Picked Northern Kentucky

Total 151 proj, 160 actual

Correct. The model had Northern Kentucky; Northern Kentucky won 84-76.

• Northern Kentucky rates 192nd of 366 teams, UTEP 273rd: a lower-half team against a lower-half team.
• The edge is mostly Northern Kentucky’s offense (89th nationally) against UTEP’s defense (218th).
• Neutral site: no home-court edge either way.
• The books favor UTEP by 3. The model disagrees and takes Northern Kentucky outright, which also means Northern Kentucky +3 on the spread.
• Projected total 151, in line with the 150.5 over/under.
• Early-season note: about 95% of these numbers are still last season’s.

Every pick is locked before tip-off and graded from the final score. How the model works.