Northwestern State vs Baylor

8:30
PM

Northwestern State☆Demons

6587

Final, model had 66-83

LineBaylor −31.5O/U151.5

Baylor☆Bears

Strong pickW

Picked Baylor

Total 149 proj, 152 actual

Correct. The model had Baylor; Baylor won 87-65.

• Baylor rates 39th of 366 teams, Northwestern State 295th: a top-75 team against one of the weakest teams in Division I.
• The edge is mostly Baylor’s offense (29th nationally) against Northwestern State’s defense (263rd).
• Baylor has played the 23rd-toughest schedule, so its numbers are earned.
• Home court adds 2.7 points for Baylor.
• The books have Baylor by 31.5, more than the model’s gap supports, so the spread value is on Northwestern State +31.5.
• Projected total 149, in line with the 151.5 over/under.
• Early-season note: about 95% of these numbers are still last season’s.

Every pick is locked before tip-off and graded from the final score. How the model works.