Toledo vs Arkansas State

7:00
PM

Toledo☆Rockets

7071

Final, model had 79-80

O/U165.5

Arkansas State☆Red Wolves

W

Picked Arkansas State

Total 159 proj, 141 actual

Correct. The model had Arkansas State; Arkansas State won 71-70.

• Arkansas State rates 165th of 366 teams, Toledo 116th: an upper-half team against an upper-half team.
• The edge is mostly Arkansas State’s defense (119th nationally) against Toledo’s offense (37th).
• Home court adds 2.7 points for Arkansas State.
• Projected total 159 vs 165.5: leans Under.
• Early-season note: about 95% of these numbers are still last season’s.

Every pick is locked before tip-off and graded from the final score. How the model works.