9:00
PMNeutral
PMNeutral
UCLABruins
8475
Final, model had 71-81
LineArizona −5O/U150
ArizonaWildcats
L
Missed. The model had Arizona; UCLA won 84-75.
Why the model had Arizona
- Arizona rates 4th of 366 teams, UCLA 38th: a top-25 team against a top-75 team.
- The edge is mostly Arizona’s defense (29th nationally) against UCLA’s offense (47th).
- Arizona has played the 6th-toughest schedule, so its numbers are earned.
- UCLA has played the 28th-toughest schedule, so its numbers are earned.
- Neutral site: no home-court edge either way.
- The books have Arizona by 5; the model likes Arizona by more than that, so the spread value is on Arizona −5.
- Projected total 152, in line with the 150 over/under.
- Early-season note: about 95% of these numbers are still last season’s.
Every pick is locked before tip-off and graded from the final score. How the model works.