UMBC vs George Mason

3:00
PM

UMBC☆Retrievers

5482

Final, model had 67-76

LineGeorge Mason −19.5O/U145.5

George Mason☆Patriots

W

Picked George Mason

Total 142 proj, 136 actual

Correct. The model had George Mason; George Mason won 82-54.

• George Mason rates 86th of 366 teams, UMBC 232nd: an upper-half team against a lower-half team.
• The edge is mostly George Mason’s offense (82nd nationally) against UMBC’s defense (54th).
• UMBC’s numbers came against the 1st-easiest schedule, so they are discounted.
• Home court adds 2.7 points for George Mason.
• The books have George Mason by 19.5, more than the model’s gap supports, so the spread value is on UMBC +19.5.
• Projected total 142, in line with the 145.5 over/under.
• Early-season note: about 95% of these numbers are still last season’s.

Every pick is locked before tip-off and graded from the final score. How the model works.