Vermont vs Iona

6:00
PM

Vermont☆Catamounts

5556

Final, model had 73-72

LineIona −1.5O/U145.5

Iona☆Gaels

Upset pickL

Picked Vermont

Total 144 proj, 111 actual

Missed. The model had Vermont; Iona won 56-55.

• Vermont rates 245th of 366 teams, Iona 316th: a lower-half team against one of the weakest teams in Division I.
• The edge is mostly Vermont’s offense (199th nationally) against Iona’s defense (157th).
• Vermont’s numbers came against the 5th-easiest schedule, so they are discounted.
• Vermont is picked on the road despite Iona’s 2.7-point home-court edge.
• The books favor Iona by 1.5. The model disagrees and takes Vermont outright, which also means Vermont +1.5 on the spread.
• Projected total 144, in line with the 145.5 over/under.
• Early-season note: about 95% of these numbers are still last season’s.

Every pick is locked before tip-off and graded from the final score. How the model works.