Western Illinois vs Valparaiso

7:00
PM

Western Illinois☆Leathernecks

5880

Final, model had 64-79

LineValparaiso −18.5O/U139.5

Valparaiso☆Beacons

Strong pickW

Picked Valparaiso

Total 143 proj, 138 actual

Correct. The model had Valparaiso; Valparaiso won 80-58.

• Valparaiso rates 189th of 366 teams, Western Illinois 362nd: a lower-half team against one of the weakest teams in Division I.
• The edge is mostly Valparaiso’s offense (258th nationally) against Western Illinois’s defense (339th).
• Home court adds 2.7 points for Valparaiso.
• The books have Valparaiso by 18.5; the model likes Valparaiso by more than that, so the spread value is on Valparaiso −18.5.
• Projected total 143, in line with the 139.5 over/under.
• Early-season note: about 95% of these numbers are still last season’s.

Every pick is locked before tip-off and graded from the final score. How the model works.