Cal State Fullerton vs San Diego State

9:00
PM

Cal State Fullerton☆Titans

78102

Final, model had 71-86

LineSDSU −16.5O/U154.5

San Diego State☆Aztecs

Strong pickW

Picked San Diego State

Total 157 proj, 180 actual

Correct. The model had San Diego State; San Diego State won 102-78.

• San Diego State rates 32nd of 366 teams, Cal State Fullerton 240th: a top-75 team against a lower-half team.
• The edge is mostly San Diego State’s defense (32nd nationally) against Cal State Fullerton’s offense (282nd).
• Home court adds 2.7 points for San Diego State.
• The books have San Diego State by 16.5; the model likes San Diego State by more than that, so the spread value is on San Diego State −16.5.
• Projected total 157, in line with the 154.5 over/under.
• Early-season note: about 95% of these numbers are still last season’s.

Every pick is locked before tip-off and graded from the final score. How the model works.