6:00
PM
PM
ManhattanJaspers
5785
Final, model had 66-88
LineKentucky −33.5O/U158.5
KentuckyWildcats
Strong pickW
Correct. The model had Kentucky; Kentucky won 85-57.
Why the model had Kentucky
- Kentucky rates 21st of 366 teams, Manhattan 338th: a top-25 team against one of the weakest teams in Division I.
- The edge is mostly Kentucky’s defense (133rd nationally) against Manhattan’s offense (213th).
- Kentucky has played the 7th-toughest schedule, so its numbers are earned.
- Manhattan’s numbers came against the 40th-easiest schedule, so they are discounted.
- Home court adds 2.7 points for Kentucky.
- The books have Kentucky by 33.5, right about where the model is. No spread edge.
- Projected total 154 vs 158.5: leans Under.
- Early-season note: about 95% of these numbers are still last season’s.
Every pick is locked before tip-off and graded from the final score. How the model works.