North Florida vs California Baptist

9:00
PM

North Florida☆Ospreys

7163

Final, model had 70-84

LineCBU −8.5O/U155.5

California Baptist☆Lancers

Strong pickL

Picked California Baptist

Total 154 proj, 134 actual

Missed. The model had California Baptist; North Florida won 71-63.

• California Baptist rates 133rd of 366 teams, North Florida 328th: an upper-half team against one of the weakest teams in Division I.
• The edge is mostly California Baptist’s defense (54th nationally) against North Florida’s offense (240th).
• Home court adds 2.7 points for California Baptist.
• The books have California Baptist by 8.5; the model likes California Baptist by more than that, so the spread value is on California Baptist −8.5.
• Projected total 154, in line with the 155.5 over/under.
• Early-season note: about 95% of these numbers are still last season’s.

Every pick is locked before tip-off and graded from the final score. How the model works.