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BellarmineKnights
6992
Final, model had 70-86
LineIndiana −27.5O/U153.5
IndianaHoosiers
Strong pickW 1H W
Correct. The model had Indiana; Indiana won 92-69.
Why the model had Indiana
- Indiana rates 44th of 366 teams, Bellarmine 292nd: a top-75 team against one of the weakest teams in Division I.
- The edge is mostly Indiana’s defense (180th nationally) against Bellarmine’s offense (54th).
- Indiana has played the 39th-toughest schedule, so its numbers are earned.
- Home court adds 2.7 points for Indiana.
- The books have Indiana by 30, more than the model’s gap supports, so the spread value is on Bellarmine +30.
- Projected total 155, in line with the 153.5 over/under.
- Early-season note: about 95% of these numbers are still last season’s.
Every pick is locked before tip-off and graded from the final score. How the model works.