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Pennsylvania vs Illinois

Thursday, November 5, 2026, 7:30 PM Central. Model prediction, projected score and the reasons.

7:30
PM

PennsylvaniaQuakers

6685

LineIllinois −30.5O/U169.5Under

IllinoisFighting Illini

Strong pickIllinois

Total 151.4

Why the model likes Illinois

Illinois rates 7th of 366 teams, Pennsylvania 188th: a top-25 team against a lower-half team.
The edge is mostly Illinois’s offense (2nd nationally) against Pennsylvania’s defense (158th).
Illinois has played the 12th-toughest schedule, so its numbers are earned.
Home court adds 2.7 points for Illinois.
The books have Illinois by 29.5, right about where the model is. No spread edge.
Projected total 151 vs an over/under of 172.5: a 21-point gap, the Under is the play.
Early-season note: these numbers are still entirely last season’s; this season’s games take over as they are played.

Every pick is locked before tip-off and graded from the final score. How the model works.