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Toledo vs Michigan State

Thursday, November 5, 2026, 7:00 PM Central. Model prediction, projected score and the reasons.

7:00
PM

ToledoRockets

6884

LineMichigan State −26.5O/U153.5

Michigan StateSpartans

Strong pickMichigan State

Total 152.1 1H Michigan State by 17.0

Why the model likes Michigan State

Michigan State rates 8th of 366 teams, Toledo 117th: a top-25 team against an upper-half team.
The edge is mostly Michigan State’s defense (23rd nationally) against Toledo’s offense (37th).
Michigan State has played the 11th-toughest schedule, so its numbers are earned.
Home court adds 2.7 points for Michigan State.
The books have Michigan State by 26.5, right about where the model is. No spread edge.
Projected total 152, in line with the 155.5 over/under.
Early-season note: about 95% of these numbers are still last season’s.

Every pick is locked before tip-off and graded from the final score. How the model works.