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UAlbany vs Manhattan

Thursday, November 5, 2026, 6:00 PM Central. Model prediction, projected score and the reasons.

6:00
PM

UAlbanyGreat Danes

7573

LineManhattan −4.5O/U148.5

ManhattanJaspers

Upset pickUAlbany

Total 148.5 1H UAlbany by 20.0

Why the model likes UAlbany

UAlbany rates 283rd of 366 teams, Manhattan 338th: a lower-half team against one of the weakest teams in Division I.
The edge is mostly UAlbany’s defense (208th nationally) against Manhattan’s offense (213th).
UAlbany’s numbers came against the 35th-easiest schedule, so they are discounted.
Manhattan’s numbers came against the 40th-easiest schedule, so they are discounted.
UAlbany is picked on the road despite Manhattan’s 2.7-point home-court edge.
The books favor Manhattan by 3.5. The model disagrees and takes UAlbany outright, which also means UAlbany +3.5 on the spread.
Projected total 148, in line with the 147.5 over/under.
Early-season note: about 95% of these numbers are still last season’s.

Every pick is locked before tip-off and graded from the final score. How the model works.