UMBC vs Marist

6:00
PM

UMBC☆Retrievers

6672

LineMarist −5.5O/U141.5

Marist☆Red Foxes

Marist

Total 138.5 1H Marist by 0.0

• Marist rates 165th of 366 teams, UMBC 233rd: an upper-half team against a lower-half team.
• The edge is mostly Marist’s defense (8th nationally) against UMBC’s offense (146th).
• Marist’s numbers came against the 37th-easiest schedule, so they are discounted.
• UMBC’s numbers came against the 1st-easiest schedule, so they are discounted.
• Home court adds 2.7 points for Marist.
• The books have Marist by 4.5; the model likes Marist by more than that, so the spread value is on Marist −4.5.
• Projected total 138, in line with the 136.5 over/under.
• Early-season note: about 95% of these numbers are still last season’s.

Every pick is locked before tip-off and graded from the final score. How the model works.