Vermont vs Fairfield

6:00
PM

Vermont☆Catamounts

7172

LineVermont −1.5O/U141.5

Fairfield☆Stags

Upset pickFairfield

Total 143.1

• Fairfield rates 270th of 366 teams, Vermont 245th: a lower-half team against a lower-half team.
• The two are close on both ends: offense 141st vs 201st, defense 188th vs 49th.
• Fairfield’s numbers came against the 17th-easiest schedule, so they are discounted.
• Vermont’s numbers came against the 4th-easiest schedule, so they are discounted.
• Home court adds 2.7 points for Fairfield.
• The books favor Vermont by 1.5. The model disagrees and takes Fairfield outright, which also means Fairfield +1.5 on the spread.
• Projected total 143, in line with the 139.5 over/under.
• Early-season note: these numbers are still entirely last season’s; this season’s games take over as they are played.

Every pick is locked before tip-off and graded from the final score. How the model works.