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PM
PM
Wake ForestDemon Deacons
5174
Final, model had 74-83
LineVanderbilt −17.5O/U154.5
VanderbiltCommodores
W 1H W
Correct. The model had Vanderbilt; Vanderbilt won 74-51.
Why the model had Vanderbilt
- Vanderbilt rates 16th of 366 teams, Wake Forest 65th: a top-25 team against a top-75 team.
- The edge is mostly Vanderbilt’s offense (14th nationally) against Wake Forest’s defense (249th).
- Vanderbilt has played the 20th-toughest schedule, so its numbers are earned.
- Home court adds 2.7 points for Vanderbilt.
- The books have Vanderbilt by 17.5, more than the model’s gap supports, so the spread value is on Wake Forest +17.5.
- Projected total 157, in line with the 155.5 over/under.
- Early-season note: about 95% of these numbers are still last season’s.
Every pick is locked before tip-off and graded from the final score. How the model works.