Arkansas State vs Alabama

6:30
PM

Arkansas State☆Red Wolves

7790

LineAlabama −25.5O/U175.5

Alabama☆Crimson Tide

Strong pickAlabama

Total 166.5 1H Alabama by 4.0

• Alabama rates 24th of 366 teams, Arkansas State 174th: a top-25 team against an upper-half team.
• The edge is mostly Alabama’s offense (46th nationally) against Arkansas State’s defense (125th).
• Alabama has played the 2nd-toughest schedule, so its numbers are earned.
• Home court adds 2.7 points for Alabama.
• The books have Alabama by 25.5, more than the model’s gap supports, so the spread value is on Arkansas State +25.5.
• Projected total 166 vs 175.5: leans Under.
• Early-season note: about 95% of these numbers are still last season’s.

Every pick is locked before tip-off and graded from the final score. How the model works.