Tarleton State vs San Diego

8:30
PM

Tarleton State☆Texans

7574

LineSan Diego −5.5O/U148.5

San Diego☆Toreros

Upset pickTarleton State

Total 149.8 1H Tarleton State by 2.0

• Tarleton State rates 148th of 366 teams, San Diego 231st: an upper-half team against a lower-half team.
• The edge is mostly Tarleton State’s defense (101st nationally) against San Diego’s offense (210th).
• Tarleton State is picked on the road despite San Diego’s 2.7-point home-court edge.
• The books favor San Diego by 5.5. The model disagrees and takes Tarleton State outright, which also means Tarleton State +5.5 on the spread.
• Projected total 150, in line with the 148.5 over/under.
• Early-season note: about 95% of these numbers are still last season’s.

Every pick is locked before tip-off and graded from the final score. How the model works.